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Permit Timeline Analysis

Arts District Mixed-Use Development

950 E 3rd Street, Los Angeles, CA 90013

Report generated Feb 4, 2026

Based on 449 comparable permits

Jurisdiction:Los Angeles
District:CD 14 (Arts District)
Type:New Construction — Multi-family
Est. Cost:$12,000,000
Discretionary Review:Yes

Expected (P50)

217 days

~7 months

50% of similar permits complete within this time

Conservative (P75)

342 days

~11 months

75% of similar permits complete within this time

Worst Case (P90)

478 days

~16 months

90% of similar permits complete within this time

Carrying Cost Impact

Based on $12M project cost at 7.2% APR ($2,367/day)

At P50 (217 days)

$513,666

At P75 (342 days)

$809,556

At P90 (478 days)

$1,131,485

Risk spread: $617,819

The difference between expected and worst-case carrying costs. This is the uncertainty Prevesta helps you quantify and plan for.

Historical Distribution

449 comparable permits in Los Angeles CD 14 (2020–2026)

3%
8%
15%
20%
17%
14%
10%
6%
4%
3%
0-60
60-120
120-180
180-240
240-300
300-360
360-420
420-480
480-540
540+

Days from application to approval

P50 range
P75 range
P90 range

Risk Factors

How your project characteristics affect the expected timeline

New Construction (vs. alteration)
+45 days
Discretionary Review Required
+82 days
Project Cost > $5M
+38 days
Arts District (CD 14)
-28 days
Multi-family Residential Type
+15 days

District Comparison

How your district compares to other LA council districts for similar projects

DistrictP50P75P90
CD 1 (Downtown)245 days380 days510 days
CD 13 (Hollywood)198 days315 days445 days
CD 14 (Arts District)YOUR PROJECT217 days342 days478 days
CD 11 (Westside)267 days405 days548 days
CD 5 (Mid-City)231 days358 days492 days

Entitlement Probability

Approval odds, denial risk, and revision rounds — included in the full report.

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Zoning Intelligence

FAR limits, height restrictions, setbacks, parking requirements — at the parcel level.

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Methodology

Data Sources

Historical permit records from the City of Los Angeles open data portal. Covers all building permits filed from 2020 to present.

Model

Predictions are generated using a Random Forest model trained on permit type, district, project cost, discretionary review status, and seasonal patterns.

Comparable Selection

449 permits matched on: new construction, multi-family residential, CD 14, discretionary review required, cost range $5M–$25M.

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P50/P75/P90 timelines, carrying cost exposure, zoning intelligence, and entitlement probability — for any address across 7 markets. Founding customers get full access at $500/mo, locked in for life.